Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
