Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
